Orlando Mortgage Blog

Calender and comments. Read on...

Yesterday's historic drop on fixed rates gave us the ability to quote 4.375% zero points on a 30 day 30 year fixed purchase and 3.875% zero on the 15 year on a $250k loan. This morning has seen a flat DOW and a 10yr TSY that was only up about 1.75 bp from yesterday's close. Net effect so far is that on the mid to larger loans rates held. Smaller loan amounts saw an .125% to .25% price (points) increase so far. Thank you to those of you who were ready to take advantage and scoop up the savings yesterday. It certainly paid off for you. Those that are sitting the fence still. . . I hope you guess correctly. If you need any assistance with facts today, please call or email me. Click the "Contact button on the home page. Can't believe I was still working on new files till almost midnight...thank you, keep it coming I can take it!  

The 10 year closed at 3.0263% yesterday. This AM it's currently below 3% to 2.9867%. We were in the heart of crisis the last time we were in the 2's. Will we see lower points and therefore a little more help on rates this morning? Remains to be seen in the next 30 minutes or so as opening sheets begin to come out. What's up with bonds? Read on . . .

UPDATE: DOW down 280 points earlier and just over 200 before noon on lower consumer confidence and bond is up 15/32...already seen a 0.25% discount point reduction, so...

Wow! 4.375%/zero point 30 yr fixed and 3.875%/zero point on purchases!

You need to actually apply to take advantage of locking a rate. Ready yet?

The DOW ended the day with another 145.64 drop for 1.4% decline by day's close. This morning saw the 10 year Treasury down to 3.088% helping rates hit new record lows only to head north to 3.1407% at the end of the day and push lenders to reprice late day back to yesterday's level of around 4.625% on a 30 year fixed zero points which is still phenomenal I must say. Read more...

I'm going to break a golden sales rule. Never get political. But, I can't take it any more Gomer...I find I can't watch the world news and certainly not the business channels on the  boob tube recently. I'm afraid I won't be able to repair the hole left by my size 13 EEE foot in the middle of the flat screen. If D.C. is too idealistic, too stupid or simply too self-serving to be able to help the economy grow at least get out of the way and let markets work on ways to put people back to work. And please, would somebody take the pen and checkbook back from the Prez and his "spread the wealth" buddies. . . at least until after the first week in November? I wish I could say I felt better now. . .

Freddie Mac just said they have seen the lowest rates in their 39 year record of monitoring them. Yesterday's terrible new housing report for May had a positive effect on 10yr treasuries which were down to 3.0881 after closing at 3.1208 last night. The DOW continues down at this time by another 106 points. These rates can be a found savings plan if you are eligible. Read on...

This morning's worse than expected May monthly housing report (worst monthly drop since monitoring started in 1963, down 1/3 to an annualized 300,000 units) drove the DOW down over 100 yesterday and the 10 year treasury down to a 3.11% yield so far this AM. Any winners here? Yes, the fixed rates picked up some speed (down about 0.125% for those lenders that didn't do it late Tueday) on the flow of money from equities into bonds. This should validate, at least initially, the actual impact of the "program ending" effect of the Fed's first time buyer $8,000 tax credit that ended April 30th. Military buyers got a slight extention on that date but the rest of us are out. One third, that's pretty good circumstantial evidence of the effect of water seeking it's own level after the life raft passes by I'd say. If you need a mortgage you're the winner. . . don't waste it. 

DOW is up over 100 this morning, The 10 year Tres yield is up 7+ to 3.29 and net effect is 0.25% point increase across the chart this morning. Read more...

With no financial reports due out until next Tuesday expect little domestic effect on rates. Yesterday the 10 year ended at a low of 3.187% and this morning sits around 3.207% so lenders that didn't adjust their price (points) slightly at end of the day will probably do so on this mornings sheet especially on a Friday with the weekend in front of us as a typical hedge against any over the weekend foreign market burps. Today's quadruple Witching for quarter's end should be fairly built-in to rates. Great rates, and that's what available today, can mean great opportunity so don't take a nap if you can help it.

Copied to refresh our memories from last Friday's posting:

Here's a "did you know" question and thought for the weekend. Did you know that second or vacation home rates are the same as owner-occupied rates in most cases? So, if you own one now and you're not upsidedown on it, what a great refinance opportunity. If you have ever considered owning a second home when do you think you will find another time when homes can be had at prices like we are seeing today at rates that your grandparents got 40 and 50 years ago? It's half full you guys.

Fairly full early report bag today. At 8:30 ET weekly 1st time claims for jobless benefits. Also at 8:30 the May CPI is out. Then at 10 AM the Phili Fed Survey. 

This is not big news I guess since they have both been running at Penny Stock levels just under a dollar to just over a dollar a share quarter after quarter and other than saving the annual fee to have a seat on the exchange I'm waiting to find out why now and what ramifications if any it will have in the short term strategy for these guys. It may be nothing more than house cleaning and a forgotten footnote.

Hey, the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit that front loaded last minute sales ended April 30th. Why would we be shocked that annualized housing starts are down from 659k in April to 593k in May and new permits down to 574k. May single family starts are down 17.2% which is the largest decline since 1991. Are there two people out there that didn't see this one coming? Old news in my opinion. The sooner we work off the inventory the better for existing homeowner values and everyone else in the business that have been hampered by an over abundance of product out there. I just feel bad for the construction industry worker and supply industry that has been in a virtual job lock out for a couple years now.

Side Note: Fixed rates appear to be back down 0.125% to yesterday mornings level. So the afternoon's 0.25% to 0.375% point hit was recovered this AM.

The Dow rose 214 points by the 4 PM close today and rates didn't go unscathed. We've seen four (4) rate sheet postings today. The opening sheet showed about a 10 bp improvement over yesterday. A nice start. About an hour later it improved again by another 10 bp only to be followed in the afternoon by a 25 bp worsening and then a final 22 bp additional worsening late in the afternoon. The net effect was a price increase from this mornings start of 37 bp taking the zero point, 30 year, 30 day owner-occupied quote from 4.625% to 4.75% by day's end. The 10 year Treasuries were up about 6 points at closing. Tomorrow's another day. Not much to blame other than the almost daily 2 to 3 hundred point Dow swings and flow of money based on that lately. Check out the last 4 paragraphs...

The word "forecast" always makes me chuckle when I remember a statement made by a divisional VP at an annual sales rally from my many years with Citibank mortgage here in Florida. It went something like this "We have ten, count them...ten highly educated economists on staff in New York city that are always gathering data and culminating reports to help us out here in the field be better prepared for the future. I've found one thing to be true. On any given day somewhere around five of them will be close to reality." The moral I walked away with is what I call the "50 cent" rule. I can forecast with the same odds by flipping a coin and then go make it happen on my own. Though the Fed rarely makes definitive statements about much of anything, being highly aware that some street guru will run out to tell the market what it really means, they do let out wisps of data through their various speeches and comments from various underlings within the regional banks. Here's a bit from one of those out of the San Francisco Fed. I hope he's on the money. Read on...

Price (points) improved this afternoon leaving most rates at the week's already unexpected historic lows and really has the phones ringing. Do you hear that...? That's loan officers across the country letting out a sigh of relief after last Friday's market bad dream that left most wondering just how high and fast rates would go up this week before pending loans could be locked or shoppers reeled in before price moved next hour.

Rates were after all a little up and down, but a 30 year fixed in the 4.5% to 4.75% range depending on the request and the borrowers credit worthiness is nothing short of remarkable. All it will take is a little good news on jobs, a report that inflation is rearing it's nasty head or any unsundry country in the known world like Greece, Spain, Hungary and who knows who doing something stupid like defaulting on their debt or China doing almost anything with the amount of our debt they hold and rates can be off to the races in a flash any given day.

Here's a "did you know" question and thought for the weekend. Did you know that second or vacation home rates are the same as owner-occupied rates in most cases? So, if you own one now and you're not upsidedown on it, what a great refinance opportunity. If you have ever considered owning a second home when do you think you will find another time when homes can be had at prices like we are seeing today at rates that your grandparents got 40 and 50 years ago? It's half full you guys.

Bonds recovered somewhat this AM from yesterdays nearly 300 point jump on the DOW. Net effect is about a 0.25% price increase over night on long term (mortgages) but could have been worse. No drastic rate move this morning thanks to lower retail sales numbers for May showed the consumer may have been slowing down. Read more... 

Rates jumped up a minimum of .125% late in the day placing the 30 fixed firmly in the 4.625% to 4.75% range depending on loan purpose and size for a well qualified borrower. Wait just a darn minute...what in the world is bad about that? Absolutely nothing, I'm not greedy. There goes that hindsight thing again.  

The secondary market has noted rates have hit the lowest level of the year. But that's an average "booked" rate nationally. If you've been following our daily quotes you know how much better you can really do on true zero point quotes. Don't be greedy this time around.

Read on...

Yesterday woke me up and got me excited about purchase rates. Thank you to those folks that jumped onboard in the afternoon. My crystal ball is unplugged this morning so I guess we'll have to wait it out till after the daily 10 AM postings.

Later in the morning: Points aren't quite as good this morning and the larger loans still have a slight edge. Overall it remains a fanatastic rate market today still with the average 30 year fixed in the 4.50% to 4.625% range. Wow!

That's right. It happened today. A qualified buyer can get a 4.50% 30 year basic "Mom and Pop" type owner-occupied loan as low as 4.50% and the lender pays our origination so NO POINTS! Refinance rate and term borrowers were slightly higher at 4.625% on loan amounts of $200,000 and higher to the $417,000 limit today.

What's a fence sitter to do. It may finally take procrastination out of their vocabulary today.

I've been in the business more years than I'd like to remember and have never had that to offer and don't remember seeing it in my lifetime. But someone out there is still thinking "It could go lower".  Grab it folks!

A majority of pundits expected the employment report to see employment numbers for May increase to 513,000. The answer is . . . 431,000 and of that 411,000 were Census jobs that are history in a couple months.

So around 20,000 is the low "Private Sector" jobs added-in (divided by 50 states, divided by the number of counties in those states, minus the number of industries no longer there and carry the 3 for the number of times you've had to re-school up for the available jobs you weren't trained for before) .

The 10 year treasury is now trading off an earlier 3.37% pre-opening to touching 3.26% after the report. May's unemployment level goes to 9.7% from the forecast 9.8% and earlier 9.9% for the month of April. Hungary jitters in Europe as to whether it's ready to default. Let's see what if anything the lender rates do in the next 45 minutes.

Market expectations are for 513,000 (only 190,000 from the private sector and the temporary Gov jobs for the rest) jobs added and unemployment moving from 9.9% to 9.8%. Marked improvement on the forecasts can see a rate increase and worsening could see improved rates. Time will tell of course. Keep in mind that most rates are not published until the markets are open, 9:30  and beyond.

The 10 year Treasury was up again this morning reaching a 3.39% level. Price (points) from the lenders appears to be up about 25 bp as lenders have continued to hold back on pricing response to the market roller coaster in the last 2 to 3 days. Tomorrows employment report . . . deal maker or breaker on rates? How are your nerves today if you are fence sitting and floating? On point article...

Home buyers rushed to sign contracts by the end of April before the $8,000 Home Buyers Tax Credit expired. That may have front loaded potential buyers in the short run until current bargain basement prices and rates lure shoppers back. But recent rate drops to levels in the 4.8% range have spurred refinancings once again as borrowers able to qualify reel in the savings while they can. A 30 year fixed was after all in the 5.375% range in early April. That's nearly a .50% lower and quite a difference.  Read on... 

Rates have been tied to the stock market swings of late. Here is one person's input at yesterday's close. Read on...